Talbot, B (2021) A novel data-driven tool to improve construction schedule accuracy. DProf thesis, Anglia Ruskin University, UK.
Abstract
Construction schedules are frequently criticised for inaccuracy and poor project performance, including unplanned and preventable costs and delays. Currently, project planning involves the use of rules of thumb and memories of the outcome of previous similar tasks, leading to optimism bias where the predicted duration is shorter than the actual duration. Reinforced concrete (RC) frames are recognised as critical components of tall buildings, with the gap in practice identified as the inaccurate scheduling of RC frame structures. This research aims to produce a novel tool to enhance construction project management by improving construction schedule accuracy in reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings, with current scheduling practices and site productivity investigated and the tool developed and validated. A questionnaire survey was undertaken to investigate the phenomenon of inaccurate scheduling found in practice, followed by a series of seven interviews to further probe the results of the questionnaire. Six recently completed projects were then examined to determine discrepancies between the predicted and achieved schedule durations. The findings of the data collection were analysed quantitatively, with the duration to install formwork and reinforcement determined to be the most critical tasks to schedule accuracy in RC frame structures. A tool (Calchas) was then created to predict future task durations by collecting and analysing productivity-related data to identify the most likely task duration using reference class forecasting. A novel algorithm was developed to collect and store project performance metrics, where the data is interpreted by a sequence of code and stored in a structured, searchable planning knowledge database. A second novel algorithm was then created with associated code developed to extract relevant data from the database and forecast task durations with a view to increasing the accuracy of the construction schedule and enhancing the planning decisions made.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | accuracy; construction project; duration; performance; productivity; project planning; reinforced concrete; scheduling; bias; optimism bias; interview; questionnaire survey; project performance |
| Index terms: | forecasting, formwork, productivity, frame structure, database, reinforcement, construction project management, project performance, optimism bias, duration, interview, tall building, scheduling, survey, accuracy, construction project, bias, reinforced concrete, questionnaire, project planning |
| Subjects: | operations research, construction type, building construction, cognitive psychology, production management, structural engineering, prediction and forecasting, building materials, control systems, data collection methods, data management, project controls, project management theory and practice, probability and distributions, professional development, management |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Project Management, Construction Technology, Business Strategy, Information Management, Construction Materials, Research Practice, Time Control, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here