Ge, X J and Lam, K-C (2002) Building a house prices forecasting model in Hong Kong. Construction Economics and Building, 2(2), pp. 57-70. ISSN 2204-9029
Abstract
This paper builds a house prices forecasting model for private residential houses in Hong Kong, based on general macroeconomic indicators, housing related data and demographic factors for the period of 1980 to 2001. A reduce form economic model has been derived from a multiple regression analysis where three sets and eight models were derived for analysis and comparison. It is found that household income, land supply, population and movements in the Hang Seng Index play an important role in explaining house price movements in Hong Kong. In addition, political events, as identified, cannot be ignored. However, the results of the models are unstable. It is suggested that the OLS may not a best method for house prices model in Hong Kong situation. Alternative methods are suggested.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | housing; price forecasting model; Hong Kong; |
| Index terms: | demographic factor, housing, forecasting, economic model, household, Hong Kong, house price, multiple regression analysis, income, land, population, movement, price forecasting model, economic indicator |
| Subjects: | Geography, prediction and forecasting, statistical analysis, real estate economics, data analysis and analytics, demography, economic analysis, modelling and simulation, construction type, health behaviours and lifestyles |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Geographical Context, Business Strategy, Construction Technology, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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