Adendorff, G L (2014) Possible futures for the African built environment towards 2050. PhD thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this thesis is to develop four scenarios for Africa's built environment over the next forty years: The "Angel" or "Good Governance" Scenario, in which positive elements become a realisation for Africa's built environment and are conjointly favourable; The "Dwarf" or "Uneven African Development" Scenario, in which key driving forces unfold in an uneven pattern, or have a differentiated impact on Africa's built environment; The "Elf" or "Bad Governance" Scenario, in which less good governance prevails, but where a fortunate built environment and secure management allows Africa to become competitive and benefit from satisfactory economic growth; and The "Hobgoblin" or "Business and Governance as usual" Scenario, in which negative regional drivers of change corrode positive policies and initiatives in a manner which compounds the pre-existing threats of Africa's built environment development. Design/Methodology/Approach – The goal of this thesis is not only to affirm what is already known and knowable regarding what is happening right now at the intersections of Africa and its built environment development, but also to explore the many ways in which environmental scanning and built environment development could co-involve, both push and inhibit each other, in the future. Thereafter, this thesis begins to examine what possible paths may be implicated for Africa's poor and vulnerable built environment. Scenario-planning is a methodology designed to help researchers, organisations and even nations alike through this creative process. This thesis begins to identify drivers of change, and then combines these drivers in different ways to create a set of scenarios regarding how the future built environment of Africa could evolve. Practical implications – This thesis provides a useful insight regarding drivers for change for Africa's built environment, and how to anticipate these changes in the most current scenario planning. Originality/Value - This thesis addresses the future of Africa's built environment from a decision maker's point of view over the next 40 years.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | built environment; economic growth; environmental scanning; governance; scenario planning |
| Index terms: | methodology, built environment, economic growth, Africa, governance, environmental scanning, scenario planning |
| Subjects: | infrastructure and transport systems, management, regions and continents, business, research methods, economic development, strategic management |
| Topics: | Geographical Context, Sustainability, Urban Studies, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Governance |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCT |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here