Madihi, M H; Shirzadi Javid, A A and Nasirzadeh, F (2025) Enhancing risk assessment: An improved Bayesian network approach for analyzing interactions among risks. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 32(3), pp. 2022-2043. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: In traditional Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a large amount of data are required to complete network parameters, which makes it impractical. In addition, no systematic method has been used to create the structure of the BBN. The aims of this study are to: (1) decrease the number of questions and time and effort required for completing the parameters of the BBN and (2) present a simple and apprehensible method for creating the BBN structure based on the expert knowledge. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, by combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and BBN, a model is introduced that can form the project risk network and analyze the impact of risk factors on project cost quantitatively based on the expert knowledge. The ranked node method (RNM) is then used to complete the parametric part of the BBN using the same data obtained from the experts to analyze DEMATEL. Findings: Compared to the traditional BBN, the proposed method will significantly reduce the time and effort required to elicit network parameters and makes it easy to create a BBN structure. The results obtained from the implementation of the model on a mass housing project showed that considering the identified risk factors, the cost overruns relating to material, equipment, workforce and overhead cost were 37.6, 39.5, 42 and 40.1%, respectively. Research limitations/implications: Compared to the traditional BBN, the proposed method will significantly reduce the time and effort required to elicit network parameters and makes it easy to create a BBN structure. The results obtained from the implementation of the model on a mass housing project showed that considering the identified risk factors, the cost overruns relating to material, equipment, workforce and overhead cost were 37.6, 39.5, 42 and 40.1%, respectively. The obtained results are based on a single case study project and may not be readily generalizable. Originality/value: The presented framework makes the BBN more practical for quantitatively assessing the impact of risk on project costs. This helps to manage financial issues, which is one of the main reasons for project bankruptcy.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian belief network; cost overrun; DEMATEL; ISM; risk assessment |
| Index terms: | bayesian network, cost overrun, case study, interpretive structural modelling, mass housing project, implementation, interaction, bankruptcy, risk factor, risk assessment, project cost, bayesian belief network, laboratory, decision-making, methodology |
| Subjects: | research management, environmental hazards, behavioral psychology, research methods, economic development, financial risk, economic analysis, contractual arrangements, probabilistic model, decision analysis, economics, financial and cost management, data analysis and analytics, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Urban Studies, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Risk Management, Sustainability, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here