Bai, L; Zhao, X; Kang, S; Ma, Y and Zhang, B (2025) Dynamic assessment of stakeholder conflict risk for R&D project portfolios. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 32(4), pp. 2342-2368. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: Research and development (R&D) projects are often pursued through a project portfolio (PP). R&D PPs involve many stakeholders, and without proactive management, their interactions may lead to conflict risks. These conflict risks change dynamically with different stages of the PP life cycle, increasing the challenge of PP risk management. Existing conflict risk research mainly focuses on source identification but lacks risk assessment work. To better manage the stakeholder conflict risks (SCRs) of R&D PPs, this study employs the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct its dynamic assessment model. Design/methodology/approach: This study constructs a DBN model to assess the SCRs in R&D PP. First, an indicator system of SCRs is constructed from the life cycle perspective. Then, the risk relationships within each R&D PPs life cycle stage are identified via interpretative structural modeling (ISM). The prior and conditional probabilities of risks are obtained by expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, crucial SCRs at each stage are identified utilizing propagation analysis, and the corresponding risk responses are proposed. Findings: The results of the study identify the crucial risks at each stage. Also, for the crucial risks, this study suggests appropriate risk response strategies to help managers better perform risk response activities. Originality/value: This study dynamically assesses the stakeholder conflict risks in R&D PPs from a life-cycle perspective, extending the stakeholder risk management research. Meanwhile, the crucial risks are identified at each stage accordingly, providing managerial insights for R&D PPs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | dynamic Bayesian network; life cycle; Monte Carlo simulation; R&D project portfolio; stakeholder conflict risks |
| Index terms: | interaction, risk relationship, risk assessment, propagation, structural modelling, risk management, risk response strategy, Monte Carlo simulation, life cycle, bayesian network, judgment, stakeholder conflict, research and development, methodology, risk response, manager |
| Subjects: | research methods, financial risk, research management, behavioral psychology, practitioner, analytical methods, probabilistic model, engineering process, risk assessment, dispute resolution, value management, modelling and simulation, participation process |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Stakeholder Management, Cost Management, Research Practice, Digital Applications, Risk Management, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Legal Issues |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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