Love, P E D (2025) Explaining cost overrun causation in transport projects: Drawing on evidential pluralism to develop theory. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(2): 06024003, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Cost overruns in transport projects are a problem for governments worldwide. Despite the wealth of research that has sought to explain cost overrun causation, with theories such as the Planning Fallacy and Fifth Hand being propagated, they fall short in being able to substantiate their causal claims. However, a theory's robustness and reliability depend on the quality of evidence used to cultivate its development and scope, which prevailing cost overrun theories propagated in the literature fall short of providing. In this paper, it is suggested that Evidential Pluralism-a theory about the epistemology of causation-whereby the evidence of mechanisms and correlation are treated equally to assess causality, is needed to build a stronger epistemic foundation for prevailing theories of cost overrun causation in transport projects and enable the development of new ones to emerge. Thus, this paper contributes to establishing the need for a comprehensive and well-supported evidence-based theory of cost overrun causation, enabling policymakers to confidentially make better decisions to manage the risk and uncertainty associated with their transport project costs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | causality; cost overrun; evidence; evidential pluralism; theory; transport projects |
| Index terms: | cost overrun, epistemology, drawing, project cost, evidence |
| Subjects: | evaluation and assessment methods, economics, knowledge theory, technical documentation, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here