Sun, J; Murphy, M R; Hazlett, D G; Shuai, C and Gao, L (2025) Simulation-based framework for predicting construction workforce demand: A comparative analysis with multivariate LSTM-based seq2seq model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(6): 04025049, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The US construction industry is currently facing a significant labor demand, making it crucial to anticipate future gaps between workforce demand and supply to enable effective planning. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a simulation-based framework for estimating and predicting future workforce needs. The framework's applicability and effectiveness are demonstrated through two case studies of the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA. Additionally, a multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder-based sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model is developed for each MSA to serve as a statistical model for comparison. The performance of the developed agent-based modeling approach is then compared with the Seq2Seq model. The case study results suggest that the simulation model outperforms the statistical model in the face of unexpected events such as Covid-19 outbreaks with lower mean absolute percentage error values of 1.34% and 0.88% for the Austin-Round Rock MSA and the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA, respectively. The proposed model offers a valuable tool for industry practitioners seeking to accurately estimate and predict future workforce demand and supply in the construction industry.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | comparative analysis, face, COVID-19, estimating, practitioner, agent-based modelling, outbreak, case study, statistical model, estimate, construction industry, effectiveness |
| Subjects: | performance management, health risk and incident analysis, industry analysis, data collection methods, financial and cost management, data science, data analysis and analytics, modelling and simulation, practitioner, psychology |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Health and Safety, Organizational Design, Roles and Professions, Cost Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here