Elshaboury, N; Zayed, T and Mohammed Abdelkader, E (2025) A hybrid spherical fuzzy AHP-marcos model for evaluating the condition of saltwater pipes in Hong Kong. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 32(5), pp. 3285-3325. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: Water pipes degrade over time for a variety of pipe-related, soil-related, operational, and environmental factors. Hence, municipalities are necessitated to implement effective maintenance and rehabilitation strategies for water pipes based on reliable deterioration models and cost-effective inspection programs. In the light of foregoing, the paramount objective of this research study is to develop condition assessment and deterioration prediction models for saltwater pipes in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach: As a perquisite to the development of condition assessment models, spherical fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (SFAHP) is harnessed to analyze the relative importance weights of deterioration factors. Afterward, the relative importance weights of deterioration factors coupled with their effective values are leveraged using the measurement of alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution (MARCOS) algorithm to analyze the performance condition of water pipes. A condition rating system is then designed counting on the generalized entropy-based probabilistic fuzzy C means (GEPFCM) algorithm. A set of fourth order multiple regression functions are constructed to capture the degradation trends in condition of pipelines overtime covering their disparate characteristics. Findings: Analytical results demonstrated that the top five influential deterioration factors comprise age, material, traffic, soil corrosivity and material. In addition, it was derived that developed deterioration models accomplished correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and root mean squared error of 0.8, 1.33 and 1.39, respectively. Originality/value: It can be argued that generated deterioration models can assist municipalities in formulating accurate and cost-effective maintenance, repair and rehabilitation programs.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | condition assessment; deterioration model; gepfcm; marcos; sfahp; water pipes |
| Index terms: | repair, methodology, Hong Kong, multiple-regression, program, relative importance, prediction model, environmental factor, strategy, inspection, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, municipality, degradation, deterioration, pipeline, entropy |
| Subjects: | maintenance engineering, quality assurance, research methods, prediction and forecasting, management, material degradation and durability, decision-making and optimization, administrative law, thermal systems, software systems, statistical analysis, environmental science, infrastructure and transport systems, risk assessment, Geography |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Quality Management, Risk Management, Business Strategy, Engineering Principles, Sustainability, Geographical Context, Legal Issues, Research Practice, Construction Materials |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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