Kaka, A P and Boussabaine, A H (1999) Updating techniques for cumulative cost forecasting on construction projects. Journal of Construction Procurement, 5(2), pp. 141-158. ISSN 1358-9180
Abstract
The use of standard cost/value flow curves (S-curves) in cash flow forecasting has been questioned by many construction management researchers. This is mainly due to the limited accuracy of these curves. This issue is addressed by analysing the cumulative cost flow curves of 128 construction projects. Cost flow profiles vary significantly even when projects are classified using effective criteria. Consequently, two new techniques that are capable of using cost/value flow data of current project are proposed to forecast (update the forecasts of) the remaining, future monthly values of these projects. The two techniques are tested for accuracy using eight recently completed projects. It is concluded that one of the techniques performed accurately and that it should be adopted by the construction industry.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | correlation model, cash flow, cost-flow curve, expenditure pattern, forecasting |
| Index terms: | construction project, cash flow, accuracy, s-curve, cash flow forecasting, construction industry, cost forecasting, forecasting |
| Subjects: | production management, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting, professional development, economics, financial management, industry analysis |
| Topics: | Project Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here