Chen, Z; Boateng, P and Ogunlana, S O (2019) A dynamic system approach to risk analysis for megaproject delivery. Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers: Management, Procurement and Law, 172(6), pp. 232-252. ISSN 17514304
Abstract
This paper describes a dynamic systems approach to quantitative risk assessment and simulation in megaprojects with regard to social, technical, economic, environmental and political issues relating to sustainability at the construction stage. A literature review was conducted to justify the need for such a dynamic systems approach that originally integrates the functions of two sophisticated quantitative methods-namely, the analytic network process and system dynamics-for an advanced solution to tackle the problems of overruns on budget and schedule at the construction stage in megaproject delivery. The new dynamic systems approach, called SDANP, is described in detail with a theoretical framework and its technical procedure for application. This paper finally provides an experimental case study on the Edinburgh Tram Network project in Scotland to demonstrate the usefulness of the SDANP method, and it also discusses its implementation to support risk management in megaproject delivery towards sustainability.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | dynamics; planning & scheduling; risk & probability analysis |
| Index terms: | case study, risk assessment, dynamics, risk management, Scotland, analytic network process, implementation, probability analysis, scheduling, literature review, overrun, system dynamics, quantitative method, risk analysis, megaproject |
| Subjects: | data analysis and analytics, data collection methods, risk assessment, computing systems, project controls, statistical analysis, systems engineering, operations research, strategic project management, contractual arrangements, environmental hazards, decision-making and optimization, financial risk, Geography |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Cost Management, Time Control, Digital Applications, Sustainability, Procurement, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here