Chen, J H; Hayati, D W; Su, Y M; Wijatmiko, I and Purnamasari, R (2019) Improving preliminary cost estimation in Indonesia using support vector regression. Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers: Management, Procurement and Law, 172(1), pp. 25-33. ISSN 17514304
Abstract
A typical preliminary cost estimation for a building construction project in Indonesia may take weeks and have an error rate varying from around-13 to +27%. The research objectives of this study were thus to determine the factors that influence cost estimation in Indonesia and to develop a support vector regression model to improve the accuracy and reduce the work hours for preliminary cost estimation. The literature review identified 14 factors that have the most influence on cost estimation in Indonesia. Data collection was carried out to gather information randomly on 104 building cases in Indonesia deemed to contain valid information for the proposed model. The model with a radial basis function kernel was established after data trimming, analysis and normalisation. The proposed model was then evaluated and implemented using fivefold cross-validation and yielded an average accuracy of 96% for preliminary cost estimation of building construction projects. The model's average accuracy was 87%, it was efficient and resulted in significant time savings.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | economics & finance/mathematical modelling/project management |
| Index terms: | validation, building construction, literature review, accuracy, cost estimating, project management, mathematical modelling, time saving, Indonesia, regression model |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, professional development, project management theory and practice, data analysis and analytics, financial and cost management, time analysis, building construction, Geography, analytical methods |
| Topics: | Project Management, Geographical Context, Construction Technology, Cost Management, Information Management, Research Practice, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here