Samuel, D (2014) Predicting significant contract risks at the tender evaluation stage. Proceedings of Institution of Civil Engineers: Management, Procurement and Law, 167(2), pp. 100-107. ISSN 17514304
Abstract
This paper presents a mathematical model for predicting the significant potential contract risks at the tender evaluation stage for construction projects in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. The author demonstrates that statistical tools such as Monte Carlo simulation, linear/logistic regression and the programme evaluation and review technique can be used to predict correctly the significant potential contract risks, namely: price risk; schedule risk; quality risk; health, safety and welfare risk; and logistics risk. The author has incorporated these tools in the mathematical model in order to assess the total risk of each submitted tender in a tender evaluation process. The author is of the view that the tenderer with the lowest overall risk should be awarded the contract as compared to the historical method of awarding tenders - that is, use of the highest score. The analysis of 126 data sets is presented along with emerging trends and results.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | procurement; risk and probability analysis; tendering |
| Index terms: | tender evaluation, construction project, probability analysis, mathematical model, programme, Trinidad and Tobago, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulation |
| Subjects: | tendering, production management, Geography, modelling and simulation, mathematical modelling, project controls, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Time Control, Procurement, Project Management, Geographical Context |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here