Dynamic assessment of the abatement effects of the low-carbon practices in the prefabricated building supply chain

Purpose: Prefabricated buildings (PBs) have proven to effectively mitigate carbon emissions in the construction industry. Existing studies have analyzed the environmental performance of PBs considering the shift in construction methods, ignoring the emissions abatement effects of the low-carbon practices adopted by participants in the prefabricated building supply chain (PBSC). Thus, it is challenging to exploit the environmental advantages of PBs. To further reveal the carbon reduction potential of PBs and assist participants in making low-carbon practice strategy decisions, this paper constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to explore the performance of PBSC in low-carbon practices. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts the SD approach to integrate the complex dynamic relationship between variables and explicitly considers the environmental and economic impacts of PBSC to explore the carbon emission reduction effects of low-carbon practices by enterprises under environmental policies from the supply chain perspective. Findings: Results show that with the advance of prefabrication level, the carbon emissions from production and transportation processes increase, and the total carbon emissions of PBSC show an upward trend. Low-carbon practices of rational transportation route planning and carbon-reduction energy investment can effectively reduce carbon emissions with negative economic impacts on transportation enterprises. The application of sustainable materials in low-carbon practices is both economically and environmentally friendly. In addition, carbon tax does not always promote the implementation of low-carbon practices, and the improvement of enterprises' environmental awareness can further strengthen the effect of low-carbon practices. Originality/value: This study dynamically assesses the carbon reduction effects of low-carbon practices in PBSC, informing the low-carbon decision-making of participants in building construction projects and guiding the government to formulate environmental policies.