Flanagan, R and Norman, G (1982) Risk analysis: An extension of price prediction techniques for building work. Construction Papers, 1(3), pp. 27-34. ISSN 0144-8587
Abstract
The principle weakness of using any form of unit price rate approach in estimating is that it neither recognises nor deals rigorously with the fundamental problems caused by price variability. This paper develops a technique, risk analysis, that explicitly uses such price variability. Risk analysis allows the identification of the most likely range within which the tender price will lie and the probability that the tender price will not exceed a given limit.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | risk analysis, variability, tender price, estimating |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, environmental hazards, tendering, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Procurement, Research Practice, Cost Management, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here