Hua, G B (2012) Modeling sectoral construction demand and its relationship with economic indicators. International Journal of Construction Education and Research, 8(3), pp. 223-240. ISSN 1557-8771
Abstract
The published literature abounds with evidence of a need to relate construction activities with the general economic environment. The effect of economic fluctuations has a major impact on the performance of the construction sector. Economic indicators, which are measures of national economic performance, may serve as viable input variables to model construction demand. The general groups of measures that are closely related to demand for residential, industrial and commercial building construction include national output, population and employment, government fiscal policies, national consumption, investment and savings, industry and commerce, balance of payments, money and interest rates, and prices and wages. Traditionally, in macroeconomic modelling studies, independent variables are selected systematically by satisfying two main criteria: economic significance and statistical adequacy. However, this has not been the case in construction demand modelling studies. There has yet to be an approach which includes variable selection as part of the whole modelling process. Therefore, a systematic approach is proposed and validating it entails comparing the results of the present study with those of a similar study. The main finding implies that carrying out the statistical variable selection is an important step in finalising the set of variables to be used in the modelling process.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction demand; economic indicators; modelling; percentage error; r-square; stepwise variable selection |
| Index terms: | interest rate, wages, population, employment, fiscal policy, construction sector, modelling, savings, independent variable, commercial building construction, construction demand, commerce, economic indicator, evidence, consumption, construction activity |
| Subjects: | consumer economics, public policy, building construction, data analysis and analytics, analytical methods, construction operations, asset management, demography, statistical analysis, management, evaluation and assessment methods, economic analysis, industry analysis, market analysis, business economics |
| Topics: | Governance, Design Practice, Urban Studies, Human Resources, Site Management, Business Strategy, Engineering Principles, Stakeholder Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here