Tang, Y; Lim, P G and Gan, S W (2012) Forecasting capability of a construction organization model: 10 years later. In: Smith, S D (ed.) Proceedings of 28th Annual ARCOM Conference, 3-5 September 2012, Edinburgh, UK.
Abstract
The overall financial performance of construction organizations in Malaysia depends on the level of construction activity in the national economy. This in turn is a function of the state of the national economy which is cyclical in nature with a return period of approximately 10 to 12 years. This research seeks to test the validity of an organization model first developed in 2001. In addition, the model is tested for its performance forecasting capability by comparing the forecast result generated from the model against the organization’s actual financial performance over the most recent economic cycle. This study shows that the accuracy of the model’s forecast is dependent on regular updating of the model. It is found that with regular updates of the model’s internal and external variables to reflect the strategic changes in the organization and the state of the economy, a model with good forecasting capability can be produced. The validated model can be used to test the impact of proposed new strategies on the organization’s financial performance.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction organisation; modelling; system dynamics; validation |
| Index terms: | validation, construction activity, forecasting, financial performance, system dynamics, validity, Malaysia, accuracy, construction organization, national economy, strategy, modelling, economic cycle |
| Subjects: | construction operations, organization, computing systems, Geography, business analysis, management, analytical methods, economic analysis, professional development, prediction and forecasting, evaluation and assessment methods, business management |
| Topics: | Site Management, Geographical Context, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Digital Applications, Information Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here