Tse, R Y C; Ganesan, S and So, H M (1998) Property cycles in Hong Kong: Causes and impacts. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 3(2), pp. 2-26. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
Property cycles both influence and are influenced by broader cycles of economic activity. This paper examines the experience and characteristics of property booms and busts in Hong Kong since 1960. The booms occurred predominantly in 1961-1964, 1969-1973, and 1977-1981, and whereas the slumps followed in 1965-1968, 1969-1976 and 1982-1984. Specifically, the three major cycles in the periods: 1976-1983, 1984-1990 and 1991-1994 are examined. The property cycle is found to be more volatile than the economy in the three typical cyclical periods: 19 76-1983, 1984-1990 and 1991-1994, using annual data drawn from house price index and the GDP in Hong Kong. There is an inherent cyclic interaction between the property and employment sectors. An economic expansion leads to increases in demand for new office space and employment, which in turn increases income and housing demand. Property cycles are disturbed by a variety of factors: the movement of interest rates; availability of mortgage loans; construction costs,- speculation; and government policy on land resources. In addition, this paper explores the question of whether high population growth, regulation in the financial sector or political uncertainty contributes to the ups and downs of the property cycle in Hong Kong. Understanding of property cycle, causes and impacts is of increasing importance to institutional investors in effective real estate portfolio management.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | business cycle, property cycle, long wave, technology, Hong Kong |
| Index terms: | construction cost, employment, mortgage, portfolio management, office space, Hong Kong, investor, land, economic activity, interaction, real estate, government policy, income, house price, property cycle, movement, housing, population, interest rate, regulation |
| Subjects: | financial and cost management, real estate economics, political science, sociology, management, economic analysis, public policy, health behaviours and lifestyles, construction type, behavioral psychology, demography, Geography |
| Topics: | Geographical Context, Research Practice, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Construction Technology, Governance, Stakeholder Management, Human Resources, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
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