Kenley, R (2001) In-project end-date forecasting: An idiographic, deterministic approach, using cash-flow modelling. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 6(3), pp. 209-216. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
Researchers have been investigating the sigmoid relationship between progressive time and cash flow for many years. Recent attention has turned toward forecasting the outcome of the project while the project is in progress. In a recent work, Kaka (1999) developed a nomothetic method for assessing the probability of a project suffering a project time over-run, using a stochastic analysis of past project data. This paper further develops this model, providing an idiographic tool for forecasting the completion date of fixed lump sum projects progressively during the project. The original project forecast cash flow is used as the seed for the analysis, as an alternative to Kaka’s historic data model, to determine the success of that profile in forecasting the final end date. The results indicate the potential for great accuracy, but only where the forecast profile approximates the actual project profile. In turn this highlights the need for relevant profiles to be used and the data suggests that insufficient attention may be devoted to this takes prior to contract commencement. The paper concludes that a melding of Kaka’s stochastic modelling of past projects with this new method of forecasting end-dates should form the basis of further research.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cash flow, forecasting, duration control |
| Index terms: | stochastic analysis, data model, accuracy, project data, cash flow, duration, modelling, forecasting |
| Subjects: | analytical methods, data science, prediction and forecasting, data collection methods, mathematical modelling, project controls, professional development, financial management |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Time Control, Digital Applications, Research Practice, Information Management, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
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