Skitmore, M (2001) Raftery curves for tender price forecasting: Empirical probabilities and pooling. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 6(3), pp. 141-154. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
A method is proposed for the empirical derivation of Raftery Curve probabilities from forecasted/actual value ratios. The method is applied to a set of Hong Kong construction contract data. Using the error of predicted ratios as the measure of opportunity cost, it is then shown how the method may be used to identify the best data poolings amongst subsets.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Raftery Curves, tender price forecasts, empirical probabilities, data pooling, Hong Kong construction contracts |
| Index terms: | construction contract, Hong Kong, tender price forecasting, tender price |
| Subjects: | financial and cost management, tendering, Geography, contract type |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Geographical Context, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here