Dowse, G (2003) Qualitative residential market forecasts: The Auckland experience. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(3), pp. 193-201. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
Several years ago the Massey University Real Estate Analysis Unit (MUREAU) established the Auckland residential property market outlook survey series, incorporating quarterly forecasts for the four main cities in the Auckland region. The series attempts to bridge the gap between historic market information and forecasting future real estate market behaviour; to improve the range of information available to the property industry and the public so that people may be in a better position to report, make decisions, generate other analyses etc. at various points in time during the course of property ownership, lease, mortgage etc. The forecasts are based on confidential questionnaires completed each quarter by a panel of property experts. This paper reviews the accuracy of the quarterly property market forecasts by comparing the Auckland panellists' forecasts to market indicators. The author concludes the expert panellists have performed reasonably well, by correctly predicting the direction of market price changes around 75% of the time. The ability of the panellists to predict movement in sales volumes does not appear to be as good. However, on average the expert panellists achieved better results than naïve forecasting.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Real estate market forecasts, New Zealand, Auckland residential property market, expert panels |
| Index terms: | real estate, ownership, residential property, mortgage, lease, forecasting, New Zealand, questionnaire, property market, survey, accuracy, movement |
| Subjects: | real estate economics, prediction and forecasting, data collection methods, economics, professional development, economic analysis, construction type, health behaviours and lifestyles, land economics, Geography |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Organizational Design, Business Strategy, Information Management, Research Practice, Construction Technology, Geographical Context |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
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