Hui, E C M and Yiu, C Y (2003) Market dynamics of private residential real estate price: An empirical test in Hong Kong. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 8(3), pp. 155-166. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
This paper tests empirically the market fundamental dynamics of private residential real estate prices in Hong Kong. The time series date from the first quarter of 1984 to the fourth quarter of 2000. Employing the simultaneous regression analysis with autoregressive and lagged independent variables, it shows that the dynamics of private residential real estate price can be explained by the expectation of economic growth, lagged unemployment rate and inflation rate. This reflects the rational expectation as well as the adaptive expectation of users and investors in the property market. Owing to the long period of payment in property mortgage loans, the results agree with our contention that unemployment rate casts a serious doubt on job security and it imposes a great impact on housing demand. Furthermore, transaction volume is also found to display positive effects on housing price.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | boom and bust, rational expectations, market fundamentals, Hong Kong |
| Index terms: | independent variable, mortgage, investor, Hong Kong, economic growth, regression analysis, real estate, dynamics, property market, time series, unemployment, housing, inflation |
| Subjects: | economic analysis, construction type, Geography, economic development, data science, real estate economics, systems engineering, statistical analysis, sociology |
| Topics: | Geographical Context, Engineering Principles, Sustainability, Urban Studies, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Construction Technology, Stakeholder Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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