Andersson, L (1988) The theory of possibility and fuzzy sets: New ideas for risk analysis and decision-making. TaknDr thesis, Kungliga Tekniska Hogskolan, Sweden.
Abstract
The thesis presents three new methods of risk analysis and decision making. The methods are based on the theory of fuzzy sets which are an extension of set theory. They are also using the theory of possibility which, in turn, is based on the theory of fuzzy sets. The theory of possibility can be regarded as an alternative to probability theory, but possibility theory is adapted to humanistic systems with the inherent subjective and limited information content. The methods which have been developed are: Indication of risk, based on fault tree analysis, intended to give an indication of the risks in a system, to identify weak links, and to optimise the checking events applied; Ranking of risks, an approximate method with the objective comparing different alternatives and to identify risk factors for these; and Merging of subjective opinions, a method to be used in decision theory for merging linguistic statements given by different experts. The thesis also presents a review of traditional ideas and methods being used in risk analysis, followed by a more penetrating analysis of the special needs of the construction industry. This forms the basis for the proposed methods.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | decision making; decision theory; probability; risk analysis |
| Index terms: | decision theory, risk analysis, fault-tree analysis, decision-making, construction industry, risk factor, fuzzy set |
| Subjects: | industry analysis, decision analysis, risk management, environmental hazards, decision-making and optimization |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Risk Management, Sustainability, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCT |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here