Cromie, S I (1992) Forecasting the demand for aggregates in England and Wales, the role of forecasts of demand in the aggregate planning system. PhD thesis, University of Dundee, UK.
Abstract
This thesis is concerned with the principles and practice of forecasting the demand for aggregates in England and Wales. It investigates the role of forecasts in policy formulation and in development control and tests the hypothesis that the preparation and application of forecasts of the demand for aggregates at various spatial scales of the planning system ensures that the "need" for aggregate minerals is met. The empirical research had three main elements: the first concerned the policy system and, in particular, the work of the Regional Aggregates Working Parties; the second analysed appeal decisions against the refusal of planning permission for aggregates extraction; and the third analysed Minerals Planning Authority decisions when determining aggregates proposals. The research concluded that there are key reasons to suggest that the preparation and application of forecasts of the demand for aggregates will not ensure that the needs of the construction industry are met. It was found that the aggregates planning system tended to "break-down" in two respects. With regard to the policy system, the weakest link was the sub-regional apportionment of the demand for aggregates and the resultant supply expectations. Thus the full implications of forecast trends in demand have not been tested in detail by the Minerals Planning Authorities. In the appraisal and determination of planning applications, there were a number of variables considered in the assessment of the "need" for aggregates which were not influenced by forecasts or demand-led policies. This is consistent with literature pointing to the potentially tenuous links between policy and its implementation.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | England; forecasting; policy |
| Index terms: | planning authority, appraisal, Wales, proposal, construction industry, implementation, forecasting, England, aggregate |
| Subjects: | materials science, project planning, contractual arrangements, Geography, factor and component analysis, prediction and forecasting, industry analysis, sociology |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Project Management, Geographical Context, Procurement, Research Practice, Stakeholder Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here