Farbarik, J J (1994) Evaluation of the efficacy of using bid data to predict construction cost overruns. PhD thesis, University of Washington, USA.
Abstract
This study was undertaken in an attempt to define which, if any, of the many factors encountered both before and during the construction process influence and can be used to predict construction cost increases. The data obtained through this study, the results of this study, and the trends suggested by that data follow the general trends established by previous research in that the results are often both inconsistent and contradictory. The results of the various individual analyses under this study are inconsistent internally and often contradict the results obtained during previous studies on the subject. The majority of the results indicate and the conclusion must be made that there is no readily identifiable method of predicting cost increases (changes) with the data and information available at the time of bid. It appears that the most reliable method of predicting cost increases involves the utilization of historical averages for each individual owner. A relationship between the type of facility constructed and the change order rate has been found. The common wisdom that economic factors underlie construction cost increases has been validated in part and a relationship has been established between construction company failures and various economic factors. Government owner cost estimates were found to be a very reliable method of predicting the low and mean bids. A probable cause of many of the inconsistencies in the various analyses relating to change order costs has been determined.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Hinze, J |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | change order; construction cost; government; owner |
| Index terms: | overrun, construction company, construction process, cost increase, owner, construction cost, change order, economic factor, cost estimate |
| Subjects: | economic concepts, building construction, organization, contractual condition, economics, sociology, project controls, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Stakeholder Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Time Control, Contract Administration, Site Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
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