Jaselskis, E J (1988) Achieving construction project success through predictive discrete choice models. PhD thesis, University of Texas at Austin, USA.
Abstract
This dissertation presents a series of predictive models that can be used to assist owners and contractors in best allocating their limited resources and help them consistently achieve a high level of construction project performance. These models use a logistic regression technique to help predict the probability of success for a construction project; they are applied during early project stages based on certain inputs related to the project manager, project team, and expected planning and control efforts. The research method involves identifying differences in management-related inputs between "average" and "outstanding" construction projects and building models from these data. Seventy-five construction projects are included in this database. Twenty-nine key success factors identified from two previous studies are further explored in this discourse. Binomial logit models are developed that relate to: (1) achieving "outstanding" construction project performance, (2) achieving better than expected schedule performance, and (3) achieving better than expected budget performance. These models demonstrate that success is dependent on many characteristics relating to the project manager's experience level, project team stability, control system investments, and planning efforts. Model results include probability assessments for achieving "overall" project success and achieving project schedule and budget goals as well as confidence estimates for some of the assessments. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to identify the most cost effective management actions ensuring a high level of project success. Issues related to the robustness, usefulness, and limitations of the models are also investigated.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Ashley, D B |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | control system; probability; project manager; project performance; project success; project team |
| Index terms: | construction project, control system, sensitivity analysis, schedule performance, stability, success factor, project performance, dissertation, estimate, project team, project success, project manager, logistic regression, owner, database |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, structural engineering, production management, research dissemination and communication, sociology, data management, project controls, statistical analysis, project management theory and practice, monitoring and control, health monitoring assessment and metrics, financial and cost management, project delivery, profession |
| Topics: | Stakeholder Management, Roles and Professions, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Time Control, Digital Applications, Sustainability, Health and Safety, Project Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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