Köseoğlu Balta, G Ç (2019) A Bayesian belief, network-based, delay risk assessment tool for tunnel projects: BBN tunnel. PhD thesis, Middle East Technical University, Turkey.
Abstract
Tunnel constructions are characterized by high degrees of uncertainty, due to two major factors; -geologic conditions, which can seldom be exactly known and -uncertainties in construction process itself as it highly depends on the performance of the equipment and workmanship. Therefore, due to the specific properties of tunnel construction projects, there is an increasing urgency to assess and manage the risks systematically. Initially, an extensive literature review was carried out to identify risks and proposed methods for risk identification in tunneling projects. Then, to gain insight into the practice of risk assessment of tunneling projects within the industry, current practices in a construction company are investigated and research needs are determined. In the light of these findings, major aims of the thesis are identified as; construction of a risk taxonomy that links risk with delay, development of a methodology for risk assessment and a tool that can be used to identify risk mitigation strategies to minimize delay. In collaboration with a construction company, first, major risk events, vulnerability and risk factors were determined, and a taxonomy was developed. Then, a dependency based probabilistic risk analysis method based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) was proposed. BBN model was developed and validated by utilizing several expert knowledge elicitation techniques. Finally, a decision support tool, BBN Tunnel, that can predict delay and estimate the cost-time impact of utilizing different strategies was developed. BBN Tunnel was tested, validated and its utilization in a real project was demonstrated by a case study. Results demonstrate that the methodology and tool may be used to integrate several risk factors, draw a comprehensive risk map, predict delay and help decision-makers to formulate risk management strategies to mitigate delay.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Birgönül, M T and Toker, İ D |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | case study; collaboration; decision support; equipment; risk analysis; risk assessment; risk identification; risk management; taxonomy; tunnel; uncertainty; workmanship |
| Index terms: | workmanship, risk analysis, risk mitigation, vulnerability, collaboration, methodology, construction process, bayesian belief network, risk identification, construction company, literature review, strategy, decision support, tunnel, taxonomy, estimate, risk management, risk factor, risk assessment, case study, tunnel construction |
| Subjects: | data analysis and analytics, financial and cost management, risk assessment, data collection methods, decision analysis, probabilistic model, infrastructure and transport systems, management, civil engineering, contractual condition, organization, building construction, environmental hazards, research methods, financial risk |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Site Management, Organizational Design, Contract Administration, Digital Applications, Sustainability, Risk Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here