Newman, W H (1934) The building industry and business cycles. PhD thesis, University of Chicago, USA.
Abstract
(Abstract unavailable. This summary has been constructed from the best available sources to provide material for indexing in this database) An investigation of cyclical fluctuations in the United States building industry from 1875 to 1933, using composite indicators derived primarily from building permit data. Although recognizing the limitations of such data, the author demonstrates that they reliably reflect both the timing and magnitude of changes in private construction activity. The analysis identifies three major and eleven minor building cycles, showing that building activity behaves with partial independence from general business trends, yet plays a pivotal role at turning points in national economic cycles. Several causal factors are examined. Variations in land values and construction costs are found to follow rather than lead building cycles, though they influence cycle amplitude. The availability of long-term finance, more than its cost, emerges as a critical determinant of building expansion or contraction. Demographic movements, especially aggregate shifts and growth in population, are shown to underlie the major building booms. Rising rents and declining vacancies tend to trigger, but not sustain, upswings in construction. A concluding discussion considers measures for stabilizing the building industry, including public works, subsidies, financial control, budgeting, and the fostering of effective competition. While limited confidence is placed in public intervention, the author emphasizes that informed and competitive private enterprise, supported by comprehensive market data, offers the most promising means of moderating fluctuations.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | budgeting, financial control, movement, United States, vacancy, competition, private enterprise, variation, population, database, construction activity, construction cost, aggregate, composite, subsidy, determinant, land, economic cycle, indexing, investigation, building industry, public work |
| Subjects: | data management, information systems, industry analysis, financial management, contractual condition, real estate economics, financial and cost management, risk assessment, data collection methods, market analysis, demography, infrastructure engineering, Geography, economic analysis, construction operations, business management, organization, health behaviours and lifestyles, materials science |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Construction Materials, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Contract Administration, Site Management, Digital Applications, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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