Ren, H (1992) Risk management in construction cost and inflation. PhD thesis, University of Reading, UK.
Abstract
This thesis provides an analysis of inflation, and investigates its effects upon both construction costs and the construction industry. The objective is to facilitate effective and active management of cost inflation, particularly through an understanding of the relationship between inflation and related macroeconomic factors. The existing theories of risk and inflation have been considered, and some new ideas and methadologies, such as the risk life cycle and its relationships, have been put foward to enrich risk and inflation theories, thus providing effective tools for risk management. Simulation techniques, with extensive application in cost risk analysis, are often treated as a mysterious blackbox. For a better monitoring of cost uncertainty and risk, it is necessary to reveal the quantitative relationshp between the total cost and the element costs hidden in the blackbox. Since the 1970's, there have been cycles of high inflation coupled with increases in construction costs and economic recession. This thesis attempts to find out what the principal causes and what relationships lie behind these economic phenomena and their effect upon the construction industry. To this end, systematic analytical models are provided with the application of risk and inflation theories, macroeconomic and econometric techniques. The emphasis is placed upon the relationship between the construciton cost inflation and related macroeconomic factors. The key factors are examined and evaluated in detail in order to present the real macroeconomic causes responsible for construction cost inflation.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction cost; econometric; inflation; life cycle; monitoring; recession; risk analysis; risk management; simulation; uncertainty |
| Index terms: | inflation, analytical model, risk analysis, risk management, monitoring, construction industry, econometric, recession, life cycle, construction cost |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, theoretical framing, economic analysis, industry analysis, financial and cost management, control systems, value management, risk assessment |
| Topics: | Site Management, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Risk Management, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here