Research on dynamic profit distribution mechanism and options in PPP project value creation

In public-private partnership (PPP) projects, achieving fair and dynamic benefit distribution during value creation is critical to project success. Existing research predominantly employed static distribution models, which fail to fully account for the dynamic changes in participants' roles at different project stages, resulting in an unreasonable profit distribution that negatively impacts the project's sustainability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a multistage dynamic profit distribution mechanism based on the dynamic Shapley value method and real option theory. First, a dynamic profit distribution model is constructed, considering participants' contribution degrees, cooperation degrees, and satisfaction across different stages of value creation to ensure fairness in profit distribution. Second, the paper integrates real options theory to mitigate uncertainty-related revenue fluctuations by designing a minimum purchase guarantee mechanism and an excess purchase sharing mechanism. These mechanisms support the private sector's minimum returns during revenue volatility and incentivize participants to actively engage in value creation by sharing excess profits. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism. The results demonstrate that the multistage dynamic Shapley value method significantly enhances fairness in profit distribution and cooperation incentives, and the user purchase guarantee mechanism effectively stabilizes project revenues and fosters participant cooperation. In conclusion, this paper advances the existing theoretical framework by further developing the dynamic profit distribution mechanism in PPP project value creation, providing new theoretical insights and practical guidance for the efficient implementation and sustainable development of value creation in PPP projects.