Chen, H; Lei, Y; Wu, X and Liu, Y (2025) Evaluation of fuzzy uncertainty risk identification for waste-to-energy public-private partnership projects on the basis of the cloud model and fuzzy cognitive map. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 151(12): 04025191, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
In the full lifecycle management of a waste-to-energy (WTE) public-private project (PPP), numerous risks are faced. To ensure the successful implementation of a project and to protect the environment and public health, an accurate and reliable risk assessment method is crucial. Moreover, traditional risk assessment methods lack in-depth research on fuzzy uncertainty analysis among the numerous risk factors for WTE PPP. Therefore, this study innovatively proposes a WTE PPP risk assessment framework based on cloud models (CMs) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). The effectiveness of the CM-FCM was verified through a comparison of actual projects and methods, and the results are as follows: (1) The key first-level risk factors are social risk, construction risk, and operational risk; the key second-level risk factors are government credit risk, construction quality risk, design risk, equipment technology risk, waste disposal safety risk, and regulatory risk. (2) The CM-FCM method shows higher precision and sensitivity than traditional methods. Both identify the same three key second-level risk factors, but CM-FCM achieves higher iteration values: 0.9849, 0.9545, and 0.9529, compared to 0.8447, 0.8053, and 0.7633 for traditional methods. (3) When the initial values of the first-level risk factors are set to A=0.03, B=0.01, C=0.01, D=0.01, E=0.1, and F=0.15, a risk level of T=0.5 is achieved, meeting the safety requirements. Finally, corresponding risk response measures were proposed for key risk factors, aiming to provide effective assistance and guidance for the full lifecycle risk management of future WTE PPP projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | uncertainty analysis, public health, partnership, risk factor, effectiveness, lifecycle, risk management, risk assessment, implementation, maps, risk identification, risk response, waste-to-energy, design risk, construction quality, waste disposal |
| Subjects: | project delivery, risk assessment, partnership management, environmental engineering, environmental health, performance management, contractual arrangements, waste management, quality assurance, environmental hazards, spatial and geospatial analysis, financial risk |
| Topics: | Stakeholder Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Quality Management, Sustainability, Procurement, Risk Management, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
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