Isaton, Camila (2023) A collaborative risk identification model with cost risk simulation: A case study of a port logistics storage yard. PhD thesis, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Brazil.
Abstract
Civil construction owns some peculiarities on their undertakings, characterizing them as singular, temporary, fragmented, multidisciplinary and dynamic. Similar distinctions to risk management are a key competency, since management allows identifying, predicting and assessing the consequences of risks, helping in the decision-making process. The research was developed towards the issue of risk management in civil construction, specifically for the analysis of port storage yard projects, called Port Logistics Storage Yards. These undertakings, as common as they are in port areas, do not have previous historical data to carry out inferences regarding the risks. They are high-cost undertakings usually carried out only once by the client and which, when exposed to risks, expend a large volume of resources, causing extreme situations, such as a shutdown or even a complete project suspension. The research presented a collaborative risk identification model, developed through the Science Design Research method. To elaborate the collaborative model, the main risks for the project were initially identified with the project managers, another 25 civil engineers and 2 architects and urban planners, the latter having no connection with the project. The cost risk proceeded to the Monte Carlo Simulation and resulted to a model which shows step by step how to carry out the simulation, starting from the identification of the service with the greatest impact in terms of project estimation costs. And as a result, the Monte Carlo Simulation proved to be efficient in highlighting important risk points in a scientific assessment. A methodological model was presented for the reader to verify all the tools used in the research.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Jungles, Antonio Edesio and Repette, Wellington Longuini |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | risk management; risk identification; cost risk; Monte Carlo simulation |
| Index terms: | project manager, science, shutdown, case study, architect, risk management, planner, decision-making process, estimation, risk identification, civil engineer, Monte Carlo simulation |
| Subjects: | profession, decision analysis, occupational health and safety management, specialized education, risk assessment, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation, data collection methods, financial risk |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Cost Management, Research Practice, Education, Health and Safety, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
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