Risk analysis in civil construction projects in Brazil: A measurement method

This research aims to deepen the studies on the elements of risk that involve a construction project and the presentation of a method of measuring the risks of the enterprise. The main problem of the work is focused on the definition of factors and on how the risks of delays, suspensions, cancellations, increase in costs or reduction in the quality standard of construction projects in Brazil can be measured. In this exploratory research, qualitative and quantitative approaches were adopted. The organization was divided into a preliminary and a final phase, both qualitative - quantitative (mixed). Research techniques were used, which included documentary, bibliographic, ex post facto and participatory type research with the scientific and professional community. In the final phase, in quantitative aspects, in a non-probabilistic sample, professionals and specialists from the civil construction sector answered the research questionnaires. The data analysis was aided by statistical software, applied in determining the reliability, validity and objectivity of the data collected. The Chronbach Alpha ordinal tests, the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) criterion and Bartlett's Sphericity were applied on the data collected. Based on the acceptance of tests and initial validations, an exploratory factorial analysis was performed. In the final phase, the second research sought to sort the identified risk categories through the hierarchical analysis process, identified by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). This research was validated by consistency tests based on the Eigen Vector. The results of the research allowed us to distribute risk elements in risk events, factors and categories. These elements, grouped, resulted in the proposal of the Risk Assessment Method, which makes it possible to measure risks for civil construction projects. The validation of the method was carried out by the detailed case study of a construction project executed for the Rio de Janeiro Olympics. The practical implications of this work lie in its strategic importance, which contributes with several possibilities of practical applications for the companies of the sector of the civil construction industry and for other segments such as the insurance market, besides being used as benchmarks for governmental entities with interest in the topic, among other applications. The work also alows researchers to explore the lines of research from the results found, seeking the development of new scientific works. The contributory aspect of originality of this study lies in its sectoral and prospective vision, proposing a new method of identification and measurement of risks in projects.