Santos, Raphael Lucio Reis dos (2023) Development of a prediction model for generation of construction and demolition waste for proposing a management network in medium-sized municipalities. PhD thesis, Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Abstract
The generation of waste is increasing due to population growth, urbanization and economic development, especially in developing countries. The Construction and Demolition Waste (CDW), a significant portion of solid waste, management is increasingly a challenge in the search for economic, social and environmental sustainability. Historically, CDW management has been treated with reactive actions, seeking to solve environmental problems. Therefore, in order to promote a more efficient management, it is essential to foresee the development of this problem in the future urban context, based on current scenarios. This research aims to develop a model for predicting the generation of CDW for medium-sized cities, enabling the proposition of management networks for the current and future scenario (considering the expansion of the municipality). The proposed methodology involved the development of the CDW generation prediction model, applied to the municipality of Varginha / MG, which associated the historical series of CDW generation conceived for the city and the variables that were related to the production of this waste. Based on the forecast model, CDW management networks were proposed for the current and future scenario of the municipality. Finally, the proposed networks were analyzed, verifying their changes due to the increase in CDW generation and the expansion of the municipality. The results of the application of the developed forecast model indicated an increase of 18.27% in the estimated amount of CDW generated, when compared to the current (2020) and future (2040) scenarios. This forecast of growth in the generated CDW, added to the expansion of the city's urban area, promoted changes in the location of the proposed infrastructures and consequently in the CDW management networks. The verification of the need for changes in CDW management networks is essential for maintaining their efficiencies over the years. Thus, it is expected that the results of this research model will contribute to the development of efficient CDW management networks, being a tool in the search for solving current environmental problems and also allowing the adoption of proactive actions for the correct management of the CDW in the future scenario.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Rodrigues, Conrado de Souza |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction and demolition waste; environmental impacts; forecast model; sustainable construction; waste management |
| Index terms: | municipality, environmental sustainability, population, methodology, urban area, waste management, environmental impact, construction and demolition, prediction model, developing country, economic development, sustainable construction, urbanization, efficiency |
| Subjects: | development economics, sustainable construction, health safety and environment, research methods, urban form and morphology, economic development, demography, environmental impact, waste management, urban planning, performance management, administrative law, prediction and forecasting |
| Topics: | Legal Issues, Quality Management, Sustainability, Health and Safety, Urban Studies, International Construction, Governance, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here