Stout, Timothy J (2023) Schedule forecast optimization for the construction and commissioning of nuclear power plants. DEngr thesis, George Washington University, USA.
Abstract
The purpose of this work is to determine an appropriately accurate and descriptive regression utilized to express the construction and commissioning period of modern nuclear power plants. It specifically aims to provide this tool for use in countries seeking to establish their own nascent commercial nuclear programs. It also seeks to expand the breadth of centralized public information on historical build programs, as well as offering recommendations on optimal build strategies for future nuclear projects. Multiple regression based upon a range of variables delineated by both statistical measures and performance in a series of increasingly restrictive regressions is utilized. Technical and project background data were collected on each reactor contained within the IAEA's Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) database and subjected to a range of statistical tests, whereafter this data was collapsed into discrete site-based projects that accumulated the overall characteristics of reactors constructed over the same period and of the same design. A seven-factor Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) utilizing Reference Unit Power, Pressurizer Use, Democracy Index, Regulatory Burden, Year of Construction Commencement, Standard UO2 Enrichment, and Standard Pressure was confirmed to provide greater accuracy than utility or vendor estimates and is appropriate for use when evaluating reactor construction bids, potentially saving billions of dollars over the life of the program.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Young, Stephen |
| Index terms: | multiple-regression, statistical test, database, accuracy, program, information system, nuclear power, estimate, commissioning, strategy |
| Subjects: | completion, professional development, financial and cost management, energy systems, management, software systems, statistical analysis, data management, information systems |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Business Strategy, Engineering Principles, Digital Applications, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here