Beyond guesswork: Predicting project delays and timelines with a forward-looking risk-adjusted approach

This article presents an alternative approach to calculating extensions of time (EOTs) and delay-related claims through the use of Time Impact Analysis (TIA) and Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis (QSRA). The authors present theoretical and pragmatic arguments for adopting a probabilistic approach to the calculation of time overruns and their cost while identifying areas for further research. The research offers original contribution integrating two established methodologies into a novel framework that addresses the inherent limitations of conventional delay analysis approaches in environments where uncertainty and interdependencies are prevalent but rarely quantified. The rationale for this research originates from industry recognition that deterministic delay analysis approaches fail to account for complex relationships and uncertainties in project schedules. To add credibility, the proposal is evaluated by a focus group - consisting of practitioners specialized in EOT implementation and delay analysis. The study aims to present conceptually the effectiveness of combining TIA and QSRA. It also explores the practical implications and benefits of adopting a probabilistic approach compared to existing techniques. The core contribution of this study is the advancement of methodology that provides a more systematic and robust basis for delay quantification and EOT negotiations, reducing disputes and suboptimal settlement outcomes.