Alaka, H; Oyedele, L; Toriola-Coker, O; Owolabi, H; Akinade, O; Bilal, M and Ajayi, S (2015) Methodological approach of construction businesses failure prediction studies: A review. In: Raiden, A and Aboagye-Nimo, E (eds.) Proceedings of 31st Annual ARCOM Conference, 7-9 September 2015, Lincoln, UK.
Abstract
In an attempt to stem the tide of mass failure of construction businesses, or support financiers and clients in identifying healthy construction firms for loans and contracts respectively, many researchers have developed construction industry bankruptcy prediction models (CI-BPMs). The effectiveness of such CI-BPMs is partly dependent on the methodology used in building it. Despite the usual claim of high accuracy by developers/authors, none of the CI-BPMs developed has gained wide acceptance in the construction industry, leading to development of new ones in succession. This study hence reviews the methodological positions in CI-BPM studies using the complete available population. After a critical content analysis of the features of CI-BPM studies, they all appeared to have used the positivism paradigm with realist ontology, objective epistemology and deductive approach. Although the main aim of CIBPM studies to 'predict' failure, an action (i.e. prediction) which is well ingrained in the positivism paradigm, makes the generally adopted positivism paradigm appear very appropriate, the aggressive dynamism of the construction industry and the experts' criticism of the methodology clearly makes it inappropriate. This work proposes pragmatism, in the methodological pluralism form, as the best paradigm for CI-BPM research with realist ontology, combined subjective and objective epistemology, mixed-method research choice, case study, archival and survey strategies, and the deductive research approach. A complete research design framework for executing the proposed methodology is presented.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction business failure; bankruptcy prediction models |
| Index terms: | research design, content analysis, strategy, prediction model, ontology, construction firm, accuracy, survey, business failure, case study, epistemology, bankruptcy, construction industry, pragmatism, population, methodology, paradigm, positivism, effectiveness |
| Subjects: | economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, data analysis and analytics, knowledge theory, research design and methodology, organization, data collection methods, philosophical concept, industry analysis, demography, professional development, performance management, research methods, education and knowledge transfer, management |
| Topics: | Business Strategy, Information Management, Research Practice, Urban Studies, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here