Decision making analysis for an integrated risk management framework of maritime container port infrastructure and transportation systems

This research proposes a risk management framework and develops generic risk-based decision-making, and risk-assessment models for dealing with potential Hazard Events (HEs) and risks associated with uncertainty for Operational Safety Performance (OSP) in container terminals and maritime ports. Three main sections are formulated in this study: Section 1: Risk Assessment, in the first phase, all HEs are identified through a literature review and human knowledge base and expertise. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule Base (FRB) is developed using the proportion method to assess the most significant HEs identified. The FRB leads to the development of a generic risk-based model incorporating the FRB and a Bayesian Network (BN) into a Fuzzy Rule Base Bayesian Network (FRBN) method using Hugin software to evaluate each HE individually and prioritise their specific risk estimations locally. The third phase demonstrated the FRBN method with a case study. The fourth phase concludes this section with a developed generic risk-based model incorporating FRBN and Evidential Reasoning to form an FRBER method using the Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software to evaluate all HEs aggregated collectively for their Risk Influence (RI) globally with a case study demonstration. In addition, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed to rank the HEs based on their True Risk Influence (TRI) considering their specific risk estimations locally and their RI globally. Section 2: Risk Models Simulations, the first phase explains the construction of the simulation model Bayesian Network Artificial Neural Networks (BNANNs), which is formed by applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In the second phase, the simulation model Evidential Reasoning Artificial Neural Networks (ERANNs) is constructed. The final phase in this section integrates the BNANNs and ERANNs that can predict the risk magnitude for HEs and provide a panoramic view on the risk inference in both perspectives, locally and globally. Section 3: Risk Control Options is the last link that finalises the risk management based methodology cycle in this study. The Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) method was used for determining the relative weights of all criteria identified in the first phase. The last phase develops a risk control options method by incorporating Fuzzy Logic (FL) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to form an FTOPSIS method. The novelty of this research provides an effective risk management framework for OSP in container terminals and maritime ports. In addition, it provides an efficient safety prediction tool that can ease all the processes in the methods and techniques used with the risk management framework by applying the ANN concept to simulate the risk models.