Development of an integrated risk management framework for oil and gas pipeline projects

Introduction: Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) are a safe and economical mode of transportation of petroleum products around the world. However, they face different types of challenging Risk Factors (RFs) that affect the safety of the OGP projects at planning, construction and operational stages. Moreover, the OGP projects often suffer from the risks associated with Third-Party Disruption (TPD) such as terrorism and sabotage attacks, which make the pipelines vulnerable and add complexity in managing the RFs and safety threats to OGPs in developing countries with low levels of security. Problem - After an in-depth review of the literature about the existing risk management approaches in OGP projects, it was found that these approaches have the following limitations. (I) Most are designed at the local scale and focus on certain types of RFs, so they are not applicable in OGP projects elsewhere. (II) They are not effective in mitigating the RFs in OGP projects when the data and records about them are scarce particularly in developing countries, where the documentation is poor. (III) Building new pipelines without analysing the potential level of risk in the potential routes at the planning stage could result in vital safety consequences in the future with supply chain disruption and loss of big investment. (IV) There is a lack of awareness about the potential impact on project delivery when developing new OGP projects without a an appropriate analysis of the RFs. The literature review concludes that there is a need for a logical and integrated risk assessment approach for the RFs relevant to OGP projects, specifically, the safety RFs relevant to TPD because they have not been accurately analysed in the past. Moreover, these approaches are mainly focusing on managing the associated RFs at the operational stage of OGP projects. However, managing the RFs during the entire project's life makes risk management more comprehensive and effective. Finally, the literature revealed that there is a lack of effective Risk Mitigation Method (RMM) suggestions to mitigate the RFs in OGP projects because the RMMs have not been analysed with regard to their degree of effectiveness in past projects. Aim and Objectives- This study aims to design an integrated Risk Management Framework (RMF) for OGP projects. The objectives are (I) identity, analyse and rank the RFs in OGP projects; (II) select safest pipeline routes/alignments for the new projects; (III) identify and recommend the effective RMMs in the projects; and (IV) quantify the impact of the recorded RFs on a project's duration and forecast the probability of the project's delivery on time. Originality- The novel idea in this research is to develop an RMF which enables users to deal with all the types of RFs in the projects on one platform. The RMF will contribute in providing a wide range of knowledge about the RFs and RMMs in OGP projects. And also, it will enhance the reliability of the results of RFs analysis by analysing them based on the findings of the literature review and the results of an industrial survey, the application of fuzzy theory and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Method- A mixed approach was used to collect and analyse the research data for the design of an integrated RMF using the following steps (I) A comprehensive literature review, an industrial survey and the fuzzy logic theory integrated within MATLAB software were used to identify and analyse the critical RFs and RMMs in OGP projects. (II) A risk optimisation method was used to select the safest route/alignment for a new project based on risk levels in the potential routes/alignments. (III) The findings from the survey were used to identify and recommend the effective RMMs to mitigate the potential RFs in the projects. (IV) MCS integrated within ASTA and @Risk programs were used to analyse and quantify the delay impact of the RFs in OGP projects. Results- The study recognised 30 common RFs and 12 RMMs in OGP projects based on the literature review. The survey results revealed that TPD RFs such as terrori m, sabotage and theft are the most critical RFs in OGPs particularly in Iraq, whereas anti-corrosion measures, laying the pipes underground, and advanced monitoring system of the RFs are the most effective RMMs. The developed RMF was used to optimise the risk level in the routes suggested to build a new pipeline project in the south of Iraq. It was found that route number 4 (from Badra field to Basra via, Bazirgan, Gharraf–An Nassiriyah and Zubair) is the safest route for this OGP project. In addition, the average project delay caused by the associated RFs within the project was found to be 15-18 days when using ASTA risk simulator but 45 days when using @Risk Simulator. Contribution and Value- This study is the first research related to making a comprehensive study for the OGP projects in Iraq to develop an integrated RMF. It was concluded that the developed RMF is a useful risk assessment tool that could be used by the stakeholders and academics for understanding, identifying and ranking the RFs in OGP projects, selecting the safest pipeline routes/alignments for the new projects, and quantifying the delay impact caused by RFs in OGP projects.