Yoo, Wi Sung and Hadipriono Tan, Fabian (2007) An information-based decision making framework for evaluation and forecasting a project cost and completion date. PhD thesis, The Ohio State University, USA.
Abstract
In the past, construction projects have frequently exceeded their cost and schedule resulting in financial losses to the owners; at present there are very few methods available to accurately predict an expected cost and completion date. These may be because of unforeseen outcomes that could not have been accounted for earlier and because of deficiency of proper tools to forecast the future status. To overcome these difficulties, project managers need a systematic and comprehensive decision making framework to pursue the successful achievement of projects' goals within cost and on time. The main objective is to develop an information-based tool for evaluating and forecasting a project cost and completion during the execution. The research focuses on the construction phase of a project and is intended for the implementations by project managers. This research proposed a cost estimating model incorporating the Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) developed to predict potential cost overrun and to quantify the uncertainty on an expected project cost. Bayesian Inference was employed to forecast project progress and completion date at the early stages as well as all construction stages. These proposed information-based tools address the effects of an informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages, and assesses the impacts of a reported progress data on the variation of uncertainties on the forecasted completion date. The information-based decision making framework proposed in this research was developed for effective project control in quantitative and objective assessments. This framework is unique in the sense that it deals with the behavior of uncertainties and the impacts of an informed data on the expected final cost and completion date. Accordingly, this research offers an efficient framework to assist project managers' improved management strategies. Actual projects are applied to demonstrate and illustrate the capabilities.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Tan, Fabian Hadipriono |
| Index terms: | construction stages, construction phase, variation, cost estimating, owner, construction project, cost overrun, management strategy, estimate, project manager, project cost, forecasting, decision-making, package, project control, implementation |
| Subjects: | prediction and forecasting, contractual arrangements, sociology, project delivery, contractual condition, production management, profession, economics, control systems, management, financial and cost management, decision analysis |
| Topics: | Procurement, Contract Administration, Project Management, Stakeholder Management, Research Practice, Risk Management, Cost Management, Roles and Professions, Business Strategy |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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