Xu, W.; Guo, X.; Proverbs, D. G. and Han, P. (2026) A GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis of urban flood risk. International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, 44(3), pp. 638-657. ISSN 2398-4708
Abstract
Purpose – Flooding is China's most frequent and catastrophic natural hazard, causing extensive damage. The aim of this study is to develop a comprehensive assessment of urban flood risk in the Hubei Province of China, focusing on the following three issues: (1) What are the factors that cause floods? (2) To what extent do these factors affect flood risk management? (3) How to build an effective comprehensive assessment system that can be used to reduce flood risk? Design/methodology/approach – This study combines expert opinion and evidence from the extent literature to identify flood risk indicators across four dimensions: disaster risk, susceptibility, exposure and prevention and mitigation. The Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) and the Grey Relational Analysis (RA)-based Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) decision-making approach were applied to calculate the weighting of factors and develop a model of urban flood risk. Then, ArcGIS software visualizes risk levels and spatial distribution in the cities of Hubei Province; uncertainty analysis verified method accuracy. Findings – The results show that there are significant differences in the level of urban flood risk in Hubei Province, with cities such as Tianmen, Qianjiang, Xiantao and Ezhou being at high risk, while cities such as Shiyan, Xiangyang, Shennongjia, Yichang, Wuhan and Huanggang are at lower flood risk. Originality/value – The innovative method of combining CRITIC-GRA-TOPSIS reduces the presence of subjective bias found in many other flood risk assessment frameworks. Regional data extraction and uncertainty analysis enhance result reliability, supporting long-term decision-making and urban planning. Overall, the methodological approach developed provides an advanced, highly effective and efficient analysis and visualization of flood risk. This study deepens the understanding of flood risk assessment mechanisms and more broadly supports the development of resilient cities.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | flood risk factors; hubei province; natural hazard; risk zoning; uncertainty analysis |
| Index terms: | disaster risk, flood risk management, accuracy, natural hazard, flooding, mitigation, zoning, evidence, bias, decision-making, methodology, preference, visualization, China, exposure, urban planning, uncertainty analysis, spatial distribution, resilient city, topsis, presence, risk factor, risk assessment, multi-criteria decision analysis, prevention, dimension |
| Subjects: | decision analysis, public and environmental health, design practice, probability and distributions, professional development, sustainability and resilience, health monitoring assessment and metrics, geographical analysis, environmental hazards, decision-making and optimization, decision-making and reasoning, research methods, financial risk, Geography, urban planning, environmental science, evaluation and assessment methods |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Risk Management, Geographical Context, Health and Safety, Governance, Research Practice, Information Management, Cost Management, Design Practice, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here