Yu, H.; Peng, Z. and Wu, Z. (2026) Coupled analysis and simulation of safety risks in deep foundation pit construction for subway stations based on the N-K model and system dynamics. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 152(7): 04026088, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Risk-coupling is a key causative factor triggering accidents in the construction of deep foundation pits for subway stations, representing the interactive relationships among various risk factors within complex systems. However, existing risk management methods struggle to effectively quantify their static coupling effects and dynamic evolution mechanisms, making it difficult to accurately identify which coupling scenarios are significant and challenging to proactively prevent and control safety risks. To address this issue, this study proposes a risk-coupling measurement model integrating the N-K model and system dynamics, analyzing the coupling mechanisms among risk factors from static and dynamic dimensions, and conducting simulation verification using a Wuhan Metro deep foundation pit project as a case study. By adjusting coupling coefficients and simulation duration, the simulation results indicate that: (1) heterogeneous personnel-operation risk-coupling has a particularly significant impact on the system's safety level; and (2) personnel violation of operational procedures and instability of support structure system are key risk-coupling factors. Based on the simulation analysis results, targeted dual strategies of source control and pathway blocking are proposed to effectively mitigate risk-coupling effects. The hybrid model constructed in this study overcomes the limitations of traditional static or single dynamic assessments, providing a transferable risk-coupling analysis paradigm for systematically quantifying the static interactions and dynamic evolution of risk factors in complex engineering projects. This not only expands the theoretical boundaries of construction safety risk management research but also offers decision-making support for proactive risk control in various complex engineering projects worldwide.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | n-k model; risk coupling; simulation analysis; subway deep foundation pit; system dynamics |
| Index terms: | construction safety, duration, decision-making, coupling, complex system, boundaries, risk factor, paradigm, personnel, evolution, system dynamics, case study, interaction, strategy, risk management, violation, simulation analysis, dimension |
| Subjects: | property law, data collection methods, design analysis, project controls, education and knowledge transfer, computing systems, environmental hazards, health monitoring assessment and metrics, decision analysis, environmental science, environmental health, behavioral psychology, regulatory law, risk assessment, systems engineering, management |
| Topics: | Design Practice, Sustainability, Time Control, Legal Issues, Risk Management, Digital Applications, Human Resources, Research Practice, Health and Safety, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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