Zhang, Z.; Wang, Y.; Liu, J.; Wang, Y.; Liu, C. and Geng, X. (2026) Transport risk assessment for China's prefabricated construction supply chain: Integrating game theory and fuzzy Bayesian network. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, pp. 1-24. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose – Transportation is critical to the prefabricated construction supply chain. Disruptions can lead to supply interruptions, construction delays, and cost overruns. This study quantifies risk probability and identifies key risk factors. Design/methodology/approach – A risk assessment indicator system was established through literature review and sensitivity analysis; risk factors were organized into a logical framework using a fault tree analysis and converted into a Bayesian network structure; node probabilities were calculated using triangular fuzzy numbers and game theory to construct a risk assessment model; finally, the model was validated using a prefabricated construction project in China. Findings – The results show that the probability of transportation risks in the prefabricated construction supply chain is 40.0%, representing a moderate risk level. Key risk factors include weight restrictions, transportation distance, height and width restrictions, traffic congestion, and weather conditions. Root cause analysis reveals two critical causal chains, which illustrate the coupling mechanisms between internal and external risk factors. Based on these findings, targeted measures are proposed to offer practical guidance for risk management in the transportation phase. Originality/value – This study shifts the research focus from macro-level analysis of the entire supply chain to the transportation segment, thereby expanding the scope of construction supply chain risk management. The results provide practical strategies for practitioners and suggest avenues for future research.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian network; game theory; prefabricated construction; supply chain; transportation risk |
| Index terms: | game theory, traffic congestion, China, literature review, root cause analysis, construction supply chain, construction project, fault-tree analysis, bayesian network, coupling, strategy, practitioner, risk factor, cost overrun, sensitivity analysis, risk assessment, weather, risk management, construction delay, methodology |
| Subjects: | data analysis and analytics, environmental hazards, decision models, practitioner, Geography, risk management, financial and cost management, risk assessment, management, project controls, transportation engineering, construction logistics, research methods, systems engineering, financial risk, production management, probabilistic model, air quality |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Supply Chain Management, Research Practice, Time Control, Project Management, Business Strategy, Digital Applications, Geographical Context, Roles and Professions, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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