Chen, Y E; Ahiaga-Dagbui, D; Thaheem, M and Shrestha, A (2022) Optimism bias in transport project cost appraisal: A review of the current body of knowledge. In: Tutesigensi, A and Neilson, C J (eds.) Proceedings of 38th Annual ARCOM Conference, 5-7 September 2022, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK.
Abstract
Optimism bias has been considered an important cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure project appraisal in recent project management literature. However, little research has critically examined the current understanding of the nature, dynamics, and impact of this cognitive bias in the context of transport cost appraisal. This systematic review provides a timely assessment of the extant journal articles in this research area. The findings of this review suggest that the presence and nature of optimism bias in the organisational setting of transport project cost appraisal are understudied. The phenomenon needs to be validated in the project planning phases. The interactions between optimism bias and other cognitive biases as well as their synergetic impacts on transport project appraisal, also require further investigations. The nuanced relationship between political pressure and optimism bias in the complex institutional environment in which transport project cost estimating is conducted should be carefully dissected.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | optimism bias; transport infrastructure project; behavioural decision making; cost underestimation; systematic review |
| Index terms: | transport infrastructure, systematic literature review, journal, optimism bias, presence, body of knowledge, project appraisal, project cost, appraisal, dynamics, decision-making, investigation, bias, project planning, project management, interaction, estimating |
| Subjects: | probability and distributions, infrastructure and transport systems, behavioral psychology, project management theory and practice, decision analysis, environmental science, research dissemination and communication, research evaluation and metrics, knowledge management, cognitive psychology, financial and cost management, economics, control systems, systems engineering, factor and component analysis, project delivery, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Sustainability, Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here