Musselwhite D, G B (2024) An analysis of activity-level predictability from UK construction projects. In: Thomson, C (ed.) Proceedings of 40th Annual ARCOM Conference, 2-4 September 2024, London South Bank University, UK.
Abstract
Project time-predictability and performance remains low in the construction sector. Any time improvements provide opportunities to increase project efficiency, profitability and success. In project planning and programming, performance is often measured at project-level. However, this work analyses predictability accuracy at activity-level to establish trends to focus future planning efforts and make prediction improvements. To that end; an aggregation of more than 35;000 lines of activity-level programme data were collected for analysis from 27 recent UK construction projects. Analysis of the activity-level programme data was completed relative to project type; project duration; level of detail; project-level performance; and time-predictability metrics. The analysis demonstrated large disparity between activity-level predictability; with more than one-third of all predictions failing to achieve start date; finish date; or duration accuracy; and less than one-third of predictions able to accurately forecast activity start dates. Here 63% of activities were able to predict positive project outcomes; but only 24% of activities were able to achieve perfect time-predictions. Correlation between positive activity-level predictability and overall project-level time-performance is evidenced. Therefore, increased analysis of activity-level planning provides the potential to improve project-level time-performance.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction planning; planning effectiveness; activity programme data; time predictability; hit-rates; time performance |
| Index terms: | level of detail, efficiency, accuracy, project outcome, programme, profitability, effectiveness, programming, time performance, construction project, construction planning, project planning, duration, disparity, construction sector |
| Subjects: | performance management, production management, professional development, project controls, social justice, industry analysis, project completion, programming, control systems, technical documentation, economic analysis, construction planning |
| Topics: | Site Management, Time Control, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Ethics, Quality Management, Business Strategy, Information Management, Project Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCT |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here