Speculation beyond technology: Building scenarios through storytelling

'Modern methods of construction' is a term largely synonymous with the prefabrication of product components in factories. Emerging technologies, e.g. robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), are redefining the concept of modern methods of construction and destabilising the structure of the sector to meet the conditions of their implementation. Robotics and machine-based automation, for example, are expected to transform construction manufacturing techniques in rapid and significant ways, but the extent of change and the associated impacts on organisations, supply chains and business models that constitute the sector remains unknown. Existing foresight is dominated by trajectorial perspectives that overemphasise technological predictions and underemphasise the contextual stories of implementation most helpful in understanding technology adoption. An alternative approach presented here focuses on storytelling, the design of the scenarios and the visual images used to help convey these scenarios. These allow practitioners to explore how robotics and machine-based automation may play out in different characterisations of the industry. The research involved the analysis of an existing dataset to create four scenarios, before adapting and extending these scenarios through participatory workshops and interviews. Project participants were comprised of seven small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing and architectural fabrication, one tier 1 contractor, and two acclaimed industry experts from an industry advisory board and education centre. PRACTICE RELEVANCE Robotics and machine-based automation are expected to transform the construction sector in rapid and significant ways, but the extent of change and associated impacts on organisations, supply chains and business models remains unknown. An alternative approach to foresight is presented that uses scenario creation to understand the implications of robotics and automation. The implications of robotics and automation are explored at the project, firm and industry levels. This will assist decision-makers to responsibly turn technological promise into substantive change. Four future scenarios of a construction industry where manufacturing robotics are business as usual are described. As an often-overlooked stakeholder, SMEs were at the centre of the scenario development process. Each scenario has a dominant player at the centre: tier 1 contractors, SME cooperatives, software vendors and original equipment manufacturers, and government. These scenarios illustrate the potential implications and non-technological innovations to resolve them (e.g. business model modification, development opportunities and contractual relationships), co-constructed with construction professionals.