US urban land-use reform: A strategy for energy sufficiency

Policy approaches to the global energy transition often focus on technology-based solutions while ignoring challenges of overall energy demand. A sufficiency-first approach aims to limit superfluous consumption while achieving wellbeing for all. This study focuses on US built environment mechanisms of sufficiency under urban land-use policy. The historical context of US exclusionary and car-oriented planning is reviewed with an order-of-magnitude assessment of the effects on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Using national vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) data derived from mobile device locations (Replica) and validated here with federal data, a hypothetical scenario explores the potential for state urban land-use reforms to enable energy sufficiency. Tenth percentile-VMT (per capita) neighborhoods are defined by state: in 47 states, the typical such neighborhood has less than 33% of its housing units in structures larger than four units. Assuming each state redresses its housing shortage while matching this VMT, 31 Mt CO2 e (direct GHGE) and about 38 Mt CO2 e (indirect and life-cycle GHGE) would be avoided in 2033. Texas, California, and Florida have the largest absolute emissions reduction opportunity. Urban land-use reforms comprise a logical starting point for a US sufficiency agenda. Key priorities for research, data collection, and technology and policy innovation are proposed. POLICY RELEVANCE International climate policy is increasingly focused on enabling people to consume less energy: not just technological 'efficiency' but 'sufficiency' is needed. However, sufficiency has seen little uptake in the US. It may be more relevant to US policymakers if related to the growing momentum for reforming land-use planning and housing policy to address the housing shortage and affordability crisis. This crisis stems in part from the US prevalence of single-family zoning and car-centric planning, rooted in a history of racial segregation; these same laws effectively mandate people to maintain more polluting lifestyles. This study estimates how much climate pollution could be avoided with state-led land-use reform. If states committed to solving the housing shortage while building new housing in neighborhoods where people can drive less, the savings could be comparable with expanding electric vehicle policies. Policymakers and practitioners can enable these reforms while supporting complementary policy goals.