Nguyen, T; Chileshe, N; Ho, D T; Nguyen, V T and Tran, Q P (2024) Significant risks that trigger cost overruns and delays in urban rail projects: A typical case study of Vietnam. Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 14(2), pp. 278-295. ISSN 2044-124X
Abstract
Purpose: Urban rail projects are typically large-scale transport infrastructure projects (megaprojects) which have many potential risks that can influence the strategic goals of owners. However, there is a paucity of studies which explore the impact of risks on both “urban rail” project time and cost together considering quantitative assessments. Therefore, this paper focuses on investigating critical risks and quantifying such risk impacts on urban railway project schedule and cost in practice. Design/methodology/approach: A combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods comprising semi-interviews with five experts and a questionnaire survey of 132 professional respondents is used. The data were modeled using Monte Carlo Simulation to predict the probability of project schedule and cost. Findings: The results show that 30 risk variables are categorized into seven main groups which have significant impacts on both project time and cost. Outstanding five risk variables were highlighted as follows: (1) project site clearance and land compensation; (2) design changes; (3) physical project resources; (4) contractors' competencies and (5) project finance. Such findings were supported by Monte Carlo simulation which predicted in the worst case that the project may suffer 11.03 months' delays and have cost overrun with a contingency of US$287.68 million. Originality/value: This study expands our knowledge about time and cost contingency of urban metro railway implementation across developing economies and particularly within the context of Vietnam. Policymakers will not only gain an understanding about risk structure but will also recognize the significant impacts of critical risk through risk impact modeling and simulation. Such an approach provides insights into risk treatment priorities for planners so that they can proactively establish suitable strategies for risk mitigation in practice.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | mega projects; risk management; urban railway projects |
| Index terms: | quantitative research, case study, Vietnam, interview, survey, risk impact, developing economy, transport infrastructure, owner, cost overrun, strategy, design change, Monte Carlo simulation, risk management, planner, questionnaire, methodology, railway construction, megaproject, project finance, modelling, implementation, risk mitigation, compensation, land |
| Subjects: | financial management, economic development, management, research methods, civil engineering, Geography, financial risk, sociology, infrastructure and transport systems, environmental hazards, data collection methods, profession, risk assessment, dispute resolution, real estate economics, modelling and simulation, data analysis and analytics, contractual arrangements, analytical methods, strategic project management, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Stakeholder Management, Risk Management, Sustainability, Procurement, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Urban Studies, Legal Issues, International Construction |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here