A stochastic framework for embodied greenhouse gas emissions modelling of construction materials

A new method for stochastic embodied greenhouse gas emissions modelling of construction materials is proposed. The method progressively integrates process analysis data into a prior probability distribution of embodied greenhouse gas emissions for a given material drawn from a disaggregated expansion of the UK Environmental Accounts. Current analyses of embodied CO2eq emissions, whether performed at the economic sector or individual building system boundary level, are deterministic. Such deterministic models do not allow for the easy analysis of potential CO2eq emissions reductions obtainable through preferential selection of low embodied CO2eq material suppliers within material supply chains. Such analyses are important for assessing the extent to which emissions reductions can be achieved through economic mechanisms which drive preferential selection of low embodied carbon materials back through the supply chain -such as carbon taxes. It is argued that the need for estimating both the uncertainty, and the variability, in embodied CO2eq data is best addressed through the development of a fully stochastic modelling framework, and that such frameworks are methodologically more appropriate for Kyoto Protocol compliance policy formulation.