Serpell, A F (2004) Towards a knowledge-based assessment of conceptual cost estimates. Building Research & Information, 32(2), pp. 157-164. ISSN 0961-3218
Abstract
Conceptual cost estimates are critical inputs for owners' decision-making in the early planning stages of construction projects. However, a recurrent problem associated with conceptual estimating is how to assess the quality of the estimates, i.e. the expected accuracy and reliability of cost figures given the uncertainty and risk that every project will face during its development. One of the approaches used to assess the quality of an estimate is the application of expertise and experience. This paper examines the problem of the quality of conceptual estimating, proposes a model of this problem based on existing knowledge and shows how the model was used to develop an assessment system. Through the use of expert knowledge, it is possible to get an appropriate initial assessment of the expected accuracy and reliability of an estimate which should be later complemented with historical and empirical information.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | conceptual estimating; costs; estimating methodology; knowledge-based models; project costing; uncertainty |
| Index terms: | decision-making, methodology, construction project, cost estimate, estimate, costing, estimating, owner, face, accuracy |
| Subjects: | production management, professional development, accounting and finance, research methods, decision analysis, sociology, financial and cost management, psychology |
| Topics: | Organizational Design, Cost Management, Project Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Stakeholder Management, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCT |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here