Housing stock shrinkage: Vacancy and demolition trends in Germany

Although most discussions on building stocks assume a static or growing stock over time, this case study highlights the opposite condition of a shrinking population and its potential effects on the building stock. Scenarios to 2050 are presented for the housing stock in eastern and western Germany based on population projections. Due to long-term population decline, the prospect of increasing housing vacancies raises new questions for urban housing stock management, operation and maintenance strategies. In the first years of the new millennium, the demolition rate in eastern Germany increased to 0.5% of the existing stock per year. This rate may need to increase further over the next 40 years to keep the vacancy rate below an average of 15%, which could mean 20-25% in multiple-dwelling units. With 25 years' delay, western Germany will enter a similar development stream also due to population shrinkage. Spatial disparities of shrinking population patterns will require a critical revision of public policy. Reconciling environmental objectives to preserve old stocks, reduce demolition rates, and reduce material flows will need to be balanced with demographic, social and economic concerns. This will impact on the current interpretations of sustainable development and suggests that regional circumstances will need to be incorporated into the evolving definition.